Sunday, May 8, 2016

RECKLESS POLICY

They are not going to take this market down before Nomember.

After that a 20% correction would be healthier than a 3-day stay in Maui.That wouldn't take all the excesses out this madness, but it might help. We say might because going all the way back to 2008 and rolling forward to now little if anything has really changed or, to use a more severe, unwelcome note, been corrected. Messes get made, never corrected. It's rule number one in the bureaucratic code.

A famous American general near the end of his life said: "Old soldiers never die, they just fade away." That's the end game hope of every bureaucrat on the planet for the messes they create. And there are few worse messes than a monetary mess. You should know that by now. You've been in one for nearly a decade.

Sometime this summer you'll have your cue: here are some things you might want to consider: take some profits, sell some covered calls, stagger a sprinkle of puts to average the cost of your protection and pull your hard helmet out of the closet if you already have one. If not buy one. But before you do any of that, however, way before, buy some gold, physical and otherwise. And don't let MSM frighten you away from commodities. Scarcity pushes up prices. Scarcity and ugliness are fraternal twins. Just to remind, things could get really ugly.

This is our caveat--and our disclaimer--what we do, or anyone else for that matter, might not be right for you. Corrections are as much a part of cycles as good times. The folly is not in our stars but in those who want to outlaw corrections as if they are unnatural and don't need to be a part of the way things go.

We have lived in an historical period of reckless global monetary policy. To think there won't eventually be some pushback--perhaps quite sever pushback beyond the norm--is about as unnatural as the monetary policy we have lived through.

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