Sunday, May 15, 2016

OVERNIGHT

The week ahead should prove an interesting one as the Fed minutes become public possibly shedding some light on inflation and what's the Fed's next move. Here a brief breakdown from the WSJ.


TUESDAY: Reports on price inflation in the U.S. and the health of American industries should show whether a first-quarter slump was an aberration. Industrial production—a broad gauge across U.S. factories, mines and power plants—fell in March by 0.6%, but economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast an increase of 0.3% in April. The Consumer Price Index will show whether inflation is picking up after months of subdued data. Surveyed economists predict a 0.3% rise in the index.
WEDNESDAY: Minutes from the Fed’s monetary policy committeemeeting in April could provide fresh hints to confirm—or counter—market expectations for the Fed to keep rates steady at its June meeting. Investors will be eager to see how much the Fed worries ill winds from overseas could blow the U.S. economy off course, including the risk of a U.K. exit from the European Union.
Japan risks recording its sixth contraction in three years if first-quarter gross domestic product doesn’t print a positive number. The median forecast of 20 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal is for inflation-adjusted growth of 0.3%, though a handful say the third-largest economy likely shrank in the first three months of the year.
FRIDAYU.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew will tell Japanese officials at a two-day G-7 finance ministers’ meeting in Japan to stop threatening to depreciate the yen amid growing currency strains between the two allies. It will be Mr. Lew’s first face-to-face meeting with his G-7 counterparts since the U.S. Treasury named Japan andGermany to a name-and-shame list in its semiannual currency report in late April. The U.S. hopes to convince Tokyo to temper its yen-intervention threats; failure to do so could signal renewed turmoil in exchange rates ahead.
Meanwhile, the Nikkei led what Monday morning was a mixed market starting with China's less encouraging data releases over the weekend. The Nikkei was up slightly less than 1.0%; the Kospi remained nearly flat and the Hang Send edged higher 0.20%. The Shanghai Composite was down slightly, 0.7% and Australia's ASX 200 was slightly up O.42%.

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